Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
