Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
